Displacement Dilemma: Identifying vulnerable renters at the brink in Australia's affordability crisis

Rising Rental Prices: A Crisis of Affordability in 2024

With rental prices soaring to record highs in 2024, a significant portion of Australian households find themselves facing the daunting prospect of displacement due to insufficient incomes. This sharp increase in rents forces many to relocate to more affordable regions, exacerbating the challenges for the most economically vulnerable communities, who are left with no alternatives but to share accommodations or face homelessness.

This situation, fueled by fierce competition for a limited number of rental properties and a critical lack of affordable housing options, is a global concern, with Australia potentially facing one of the most severe crises.

Displacement Trends and Economic Disparities

An analysis of current vacancy rates supports the theory that demand is shifting towards more affordable suburbs. Data as of February 2023 shows that wealthier suburbs have higher vacancy rates, while areas with economic challenges have the lowest, indicating a trend where lower-income families are being displaced by those with greater financial resources.

Utilizing a 30% income-to-rent ratio as a benchmark for housing affordability, our findings highlight a disturbing trend of households spending a larger portion of their income on rent, being systematically pushed out to more cost-effective areas. This displacement effect cascades from one suburb to another, marginalizing those who cannot compete in the tight rental market.

The Scope of the Displacement Crisis

Nationwide, it is estimated that over 800,000 households are at risk of being displaced, particularly those in the lowest socio-economic brackets, as indicated by the first and second SEIFA indices. Alarmingly low vacancy rates below 1.3% in these areas, compared to 1.8% in higher socio-economic suburbs, mark the beginning of a widespread displacement crisis.

Our comprehensive report ranks SA4 regions by potential displacement volume, corroborated by vacancy rate analysis across SEIFA categories, aiming to validate the theory of cascading displacement. It lists the top 10 suburbs at greatest risk, providing detailed insights into income thresholds and SEIFA rankings to understand the socio-economic scale of this crisis.

Methodology and Analysis

Our initial analysis classified suburbs using the ABS's SA2 framework, reviewing household income data from the 2021 Census across 15 brackets. We then calculated median rental prices for February 2024, integrating these into an average rental cost weighted by the distribution of privately rented houses and units within each SA2.

By setting a 30% income-to-rent spending threshold, we identified economically vulnerable households, allowing us to estimate the number of households at risk of displacement due to unaffordable rent prices.

Limitations and Assumptions

Our approach, while simplifying analysis by using the highest income figure within each bracket, may overlook the complexities of income distribution adjustments. The assumption that income distribution among renters mirrors the broader SA2 population could underestimate the affordability crisis, as renters often earn less than homeowners. Additionally, relying on 2021 Census data without considering subsequent household composition changes might not fully capture the dynamics of renter displacement and the escalating affordability crisis.