ValuePRO Risk Index
Where the pressure is building.
A proprietary 1–5 scoring of forward-looking price risk, calibrated across every SA3 in Australia. 329 house markets and 316 unit markets scored this month on six signals — price momentum, time-on-market and listings trajectory — distilling twelve months of data into a single reading.
The shape of risk, nationally.
Scores are tuned so the tails carry weight. A reading of 5 is rare — reserved for markets where every leading indicator is flashing simultaneously. A reading of 1 demands the inverse: growth, absorption, and listings all aligned.
State ribbons — who leads, who lags.
Each ribbon plots the share of SA3s at each risk score within the state. Click a state to filter the rankings below.
Every SA3, read the room.
All SA3s sorted by composite risk. Click any row to open the signal breakdown and twelve-month trajectories. Filter by state, by risk score, or search for a name.
Six signals. One number.
The ValuePRO Risk Index is built from three observable market inputs — median sale price, days on market, and for-sale listings — measured across twelve rolling monthly periods. Each SA3 is scored on six derived signals, then combined into a composite 1–5 reading.
Reading the score
"The Risk Index is a read-the-room instrument. It does not predict crashes — it flags markets where the conditions for stall are stacking up."
Scores are cross-sectional. A 5 in a rising national market is not an absolute call; it flags an SA3 whose signals are weakest relative to peers this month.
Houses and units are scored independently. The six signal scores are weighted and ranked into quintiles to produce the composite.
Confluence (S6) rewards alignment: when momentum, absorption, and listings are all deteriorating together, risk is amplified. Isolated weakness in a single signal is discounted.